Domestic automobile retail sales declined 4 per cent year-on-year in July amid drop in demand for passenger vehicles and two-wheelers, dealers' body FADA said on Thursday. Overall registrations dropped to 19,64,213 units last month, as compared to 20,52,759 units in July 2024.
In response to the panic triggered by Trump's trade policies, the RBI net sold approximately $43 billion in the second half of FY25 to curb volatility, as the rupee plunged to a low of 87.95 per dollar in February this year.
The rupee has depreciated 9.7 per cent against the US dollar over a year and with the RBI stemming the rupee's weakness through dollar sales, its reserves have dropped to their lowest levels since October, 2020. The fall in reserves has widespread implications.
The rupee gained 31 paise to close at 66.42 in Thursday's trade.
The 3-month, 6-month and 12-month USD-rupee forecasts are 55, 53 and 52 respectively.
While growth in India is largely domestic and hence the overall GDP effect may not be more than 0.15-0.2%, but overall trade will be impacted due to every country going back to the drawing board, points out Madan Sabnavis.
'Things may get much worse before they get better,' predicts Ajay Chhibber.
After a brutal selloff since October, foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows for the year-to-date (YTD) in 2024 have turned negative. In early September, YTD FPI investments peaked at a record Rs 22,000 crore ($2.6 billion). This wave of selling has also pulled down benchmark indices, with the Nifty's YTD returns declining to 11 per cent from their high of 21 per cent in September.
Dollar debt and higher import cost might impact earnings by up to 30%.
The rupee depreciation will work in favour of students who are currently studying in the US and plan to secure a job that pays in dollars.
'Global investors expect the rupee to be more vulnerable in the downturns in the future than ever before,' notes Apoorva Javadekar.
The Indian rupee is expected to trade between 80 and 84 against dollar in the first three months of 2023 with support from overseas inflows though worsening current account deficit (CAD) and reduced interest rate differential between the US and India pose challenges. According to a Business Standard Poll of 10 participants, most said the rupee could gain strength in January due to foreign inflows, and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is not expected to allow the currency to depreciate ahead of the Union Budget scheduled on February 1. The rupee depreciated 10.15 per cent in 2022, its worst performance since 2013 as the war in Europe and the interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve prompted investors to flee emerging markets.
According to a report by financial and business research firm Evalueserve, there will be pressure on the Rupee unless steps are taken to fix certain structural issues like high current account deficit and dwindling investments.
After Bandhan MF's US Treasury Bond 0-1 year Fund of Fund (FoF), Aditya Birla Sun Life (ABSL) MF has come out with US Treasury 1-3 Year Bond ETFs FoF and 3-10 Year Bond ETFs FoF. US bonds, which generally offer low yields, have turned attractive post the 525-basis point hike in US interest rates. According to Bloomberg data, the 1-year and 2-year US treasury yields now stand at 5.4 per cent and 5.1 per cent, respectively. Although the yields remain lower than what Indian government bonds offer, the differential has come down steeply.
Recovery in US gives extra boost to IT/ITeS office deals in Bangalore and the National Capital Region.
The rupee's slide against the dollar and euro has put pressure on international automobile companies as compressed margins may force them to revisit prices of imported models in the next few months.
Brokerages expect a further slowdown in Indian firms' revenue and earnings growth in Q4FY25, following low single-digit growth in the preceding three quarters, as factors like weak consumer demand and credit growth linger on.
Dealers attributed the rupee's fall to increased demand for the US currency from importers.
The country's largest airline IndiGo on Friday saw its profit after tax slide 18.3 per cent to Rs 2,448.8 crore in the three months ended December 2024 due to foreign exchange loss even as revenue jumped on higher capacity and passenger traffic. The carrier, which had a fleet of 437 planes at the end of December, is planning to induct wet leased planes for long range flights and expects the number of grounded aircraft to come down to 40s by the start of next financial year from the current level of 60s.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
The rupee's plunging to record level and a sharp fall in the equity market are knee-jerk investor reactions to the US Federal Reserve's saying the it will slow down bond-buying programme in view of improving American economy.
After an extremely stable 2023, the Indian rupee started 2024 on a promising note and has turned out to be the best-performing Asian currency so far in January, appreciating 0.1 per cent despite 2 per cent rise in the dollar index. All other Asian currencies depreciated by around 1.4-4 per cent during the month. The local currency regained its ground against the greenback on the back of foreign portfolio inflows, said market participants.
The rupee depreciated 31 paise to an all-time low of 80.15 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday tracking the strength of the American currency and firm crude oil prices. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 80.10 against the dollar, then lost ground to quote at 80.15, registering a fall of 31 paise from the last close. On Friday, the rupee closed at 79.84 against the dollar.
The dollar also gained strength in the overseas market against the euro and other currencies.
Going by the real effective exchange rate, the rupee is overvalued
Hit by the depreciating rupee, auto companies, including General Motors India and Toyota Kirloskar Motor, are mulling hike in prices to offset the rising cost of component imports.
Stock markets opening with losses too put pressure on the domestic unit.
Major Indian carmakers are preparing for sluggish domestic PV sales growth of just 1-2 per cent in FY26.
The rupee depreciated by 22 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 79.48 (provisional) against the US dollar on Monday, tracking a strong greenback overseas and subdued domestic equities. However, receding crude oil prices in the international market restricted the rupee's loss, forex traders said. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened weak at 79.30 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 79.24 and a low of 79.49.
In the sharpest jump in over two years, the country's foreign exchange reserves increased by $15.27 billion to $653.97 billion during the week ended March 7, the RBI has said. The overall reserves had dropped by $1.78 billion to $638.7 billion in the previous week.
The Rs 250,000-crore (Rs 2.5 trillion) domestic jewellery sector is likely to be hit hard by frequent rises in gold import duty and the sustained depreciation of the rupee against the dollar.
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The rated oil and gas companies, Fitch said, have a significant proportion of foreign currency-denominated debt.
India's forex reserves jumped $10.87 billion to $676.27 billion during the week ended April 4, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Friday. The overall kitty had jumped $6.6 billion to $665.4 billion in the previous reporting week.
Dealers attributed the fall to fresh demand for the US currency from importers.
Information technology (IT) stocks ended at their lowest in nearly nine months after a fresh bout of selling, triggered by concerns over a recession in the US, the key market for domestic software exporters. A report by Morgan Stanley citing risks to growth also weighed on sentiment.
For the first time, the rupee declined to the low level of 80 against the US dollar in intra-day spot trading on Monday before ending the session 16 paise lower at 79.98 amid a surge in crude oil prices and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.76 against the greenback but lost ground to touch the psychological low mark of 80 against the American currency. The local unit clawed back some lost ground and closed at 79.98, registering a fall of 16 paise over its previous close.
Sale of dollars directly by the RBI can help but only temporarily for a day or two before it will be back to a volatile market.
The rupee's slide to a two-year low will impact consumer durables and electronics companies, as the import content in their products tends to be high
The rupee depreciated 44 paise and slipped below the 81-mark against the US dollar for the first time in early trade on Friday, weighed down by the strong american currency and risk-off sentiment among investors. Forex traders said escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine and rate hikes by the US Fed and Bank of England in a bid to contain inflation sapped risk appetite. Further, the strength of the American currency in the overseas market, a negative trend in domestic equities, and risk-off moods amid escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine weighed on the local unit.
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